METEOROLOGÍA : LLUVIAS EN LEVANTE, FRÍO Y NIEVE DESPUÉS". ( Actualizado )
Hola.
Sin duda este invierno esta resultando excepcionalmente activo.La dinámica atmosférica ha mostrado una actividad que no recuerdo haber vivido anteriormente.
Desde diciembre hasta marzo, se han sucedido las entradas atlánticas y algunas invasiones siberianas. Andalucía está inundada en grandes áreas.Lo mismo se puede decir de algunas zonas de Extremadura, Galícia y Portugal que también han sufrido lluvias y huracanes hasta horas muy recientes.En el temporal que todavía está dando sus últimos coletazos en el Norte de España se han registrado vientos de entre 150 y 180 km/h.( zonas altas de Ourense) en Galícia y de 170 km/h.en el País Vasco.La racha máxima registrada fué en el Alto de Orduña en Vizcaya con 228 km/h. Estos valores son excepcionales y pueden tener un período de retorno de 20 años o probablemente más.
¿La causante?, una depresión extremadamente activa ( bautizada como Xynthia) que se formó cerca de Madeira y que se profundizó en cuestión de horas con una rápida traslación desde el mar Cantábrico (967 hPa), hasta la Bretaña francesa - Canal de La Mancha y Países Bajos manteniendo a pesar de la distancia recorrida una buena parte de su vigor con presiones de +- 978 hPa en su centro.De momento hay que lamentar la pérdida de dos vidas en España aparte de los innumerables daños materiales que incluyen el desplome de algunas casas en la Rioja y León.De momento hay 40 víctimas mortales en Francia.Se ha decretado alerta máxima en Alemania con el cierre de algunas autopistas.
Resulta muy atípica la formación y tránsito de depresiones tan profundas por latitudes tan bajas como las Islas Madeira o Las Canarias.La causa puede ser debida al hecho de que el Frente Polar se haya desplazado hacia el S.y consecuentemente la Corriente en Chorro o "Jet-Stream" se ondule formando perturbaciones mucho más al S. que habitualmente. Este es un tema complejo y digno de estudio, ya que nos convendría añadir a ello los efectos del Anticiclón del Atlántico Norte como factor de bloqueo de paso, y la práctica inexistencia durante meses del Anticiclón de las Azores.Muy probablemente el desplazamiento-temporal-del Frente Polar y de la Corriente en Chorro esté directamente relacionado con este patrón de circulación general atmósférica:
a)Ciclogénesis en bajas latitudes.
b)Ausencia de las altas presiones de las Azores.
c)Persistencia de altas presiones de bloqueo en latitudes muy septentrionales de Europa y del Atlántico Norte.
Se trataría de una fase N.A.O.(North Atlantic Oscillation)claramente negativa y consecuencia de la desviación de la trayectoría de la corriente en chorro en altas cotas.
Pero aquí no acaba la cosa.La semana entrante será aún más activa que la actual, aunque menos violenta. Los cambios se sucederán con inusitada rapidez y pasaremos del ambiente casi primaveral que hoy disfrutamos en las costas del Mediterráneo a condiciones propias de riguroso invierno. Antes tendremos abundantes lluvias debidas a un temporal de Levante-a partir del martes-y a continuación una entrada fría continental que causará nevadas por enésima vez durante el actual invierno en amplias zonas peninsulares y tal vez de las islas Baleares. La invasión será muy fría con temperaturas de -32ºC a 5.500 metros para dentro de una semana, que comparadas con los -16ºC actuales son muy distintas. A unos 1.500 metros la temperatura de hoy es de unos -3 a -5ºC y se espera que pueda llegar en algunas zonas a -8ºC.
Pero ya a partir de mañana lunes se iniciarán algunas nevadas en zonas de la meseta norte mientras empieza a llover de nuevo en la fachada atlántica. La nueva depresión al contrario de la anteruior cruzará la peninsula ibérica de Oeste a Este perdiendo parte de su profundidad. Llegada al Mediterráneo se formara una baja que junto a la "recién llegada" formarán un mínimo muy activo con vientos del Este y abundantes luvias y nevadas en cotas altas.Las temperaturas bajarán y los vientos del E. NE. arreciarán muy considerablemente. Esto debería producirse si los pronósticos son correctos sobre el miércoles, o sea en 72 horas. Predicciones a tan corto plazo deben contener un elevado índice de fiabilidad.
POosteriormnente se establece un flujo de vientos del NE. muy fríos, que favorecen la formación de nuevos campos depresionarios en el Mediterráneo Occidental que deberán afectar a España, Francia e Italia de forma muy clara. De confirmarse lo expuesto, las condiciones meteorológicas deben empeorar muy rapidamente a partir del próximo martes, no observándose mejorías. Más bien al contrario, las condiciones meteorológicas para la segunda mitad de la semana y el"week-end" parece que van a ser netamente invernales y más propias de enero e inicios de febrero que del mes de marzo.
UNAS GOTAS DE METEOROLOGÍA
==========================
El orígen del gallo como motivo ornamental de las veletas se remonta al siglo IX. Concretamente, fué el Papa Nicolás I el que ordenó su colocación en los campanarios de las iglesias para simbolizar la triple negación del apóstol San Pedro ante Jesús antes del canto de la citada ave.
Los globos de helio con los que se efectúan los radiosondeos ascienden hasta unos 3o kilómetros de altura, donde terminan estallando y cayendo a tierra o al mar, al no resistir el caucho del que están construidos la formidable expansión la que se ven sometidos. ( Diferencia de presión con el exterior).
EFEMÉRIDES DEL 28 DE FEBRERO
============================
1642.- Tormenta en Barcelona, un rayo agrieta la torre de Montgat.
1710.-.Inundación en Murcia por desbordamiento del Segura y Guadalentín que producen daños en la catedral.
1986.-Temporal de viento en Canarias que produce rachas de entre 100 y 115 km/h en Santa Cruz de Tenerife y zonas de El Hierro.
1993.- Una ola de frío provoca nevadas en lugares tan inusuales como las costas del Mediterráneo el interior de Catalunya, Valencia y Murcia.
2005.- Se registra en Tarifa,Cádiz, una precipitación de 115,0 lm2 y en Segovia una temperatura mínima de -11,4ºC y en Piornal (Cáceres) - 9,2ºC.
2006.- Temporal de viento en Canariasbque derriba enormes árboles centenarios en la rambla de Santa Cruz de Tenerife. El viento alcanza entre 100 y 115 km/h en la vertiente N. de Tenerife, en la vertiente E. de La Palma y en zonas del Hierro.
VALORES EXTREMOS MUNDIALES EN 24 HORAS
======================================
Geraldton Airport (Australia)+45,2ºC
Kiffa (Mauritania) +44,0ºC
Matam (Senegal) +44,0ºC
Davis Lgb 46 Aws (Antártida)-61,0ºC
Vostok (Antártida) -58,9ºC
University Wi Id 8904 (Antártida) -54,8ºC
Christmas Island ( Christmas Island) 103,6 mm.
Burketown Airp. ( Australia ) 100,0 mm.
Masamva (Indonesia) 100,0 mm.
Y nada más. Disfrutemos los aficionados los días que se aproximan;sin duda vamos a tener notable actividad en estos posibles últimos coletazos del tramo más riguroso de este invierno tan especial.
Saludos.
Mariscal Tro
Fuentes: AEMET, Infomet, OGIMET y propias.
posted by Mariscal Tro at 9:51 AM
19 Comments:
Hola Mariscal, gracias por tus predicciones y tus explicaciones. Son emocionantes e interesantes. Te sigo todos los días. Y esta semana también promete. Saludos metereológicos de Mireia
Una vez más y como siempre formidable Mariscal. Estaremos atentos a tus predicciones para estos próximos dias.
Salut!
JCF
Mariscal, algunas páginas web, desconozco si fiables en mayor o menor consideración, a dar previsión de nieve para Barcelona el lunes, entiendo que ahí vamos englobados en El Prat de Llobregat. ¿Cabe esa posibilidad y probabilidad? Estamos en marzo, no parece la época más idonea, ni las condiciones parecen las adecuadas. Tengo muy presentes tus explicaciones sobre que se deben dar el 100% de factores para que nieve en Bcn, etc... Por eso no me cuadra, pero al decir que el tiempo va estar tremendamente cambiante me han hecho dudar. ¿Que opinas?
Muchas gracias.
JCF
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