Tuesday, July 13, 2010

" METEOROLOGÍA : BRITISH PETROLEUM Y LA CORRIENTE DEL GOLFO"

Hola a todos.
He leído hoy una noticia que me ha sorprendido. Se trata del riesgo de cambio climático (al menos en Europa) debido al ingente vertido de crudos procedentes de la plataforma de "B.P." desde hace casi tres meses cerca de las costa de los Estados Unidos. Según el artículo que reproduzco textualmente,las aguas atlánticas que componen la Corriente del Golfo " Gulf Stream mezcladas con el crudo verían alteradas sus condiciones de densidad y posiblemente de temperatura. Ello comportaría la ruptura del "loop" o bucle que integra en la Corriente del Golfo las aguas más cálidas.Esta corriente es la que nos proporciona en Europa temperaturas muy superiores a las que nos corresponderían por la latitud.Su caudal es enorme : 80 millones de metros cúbicos/segundo.

Reproduzco el artículo:

"RISK OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE BY BP OIL SPILL
Gianluigi Zangari
Frascati National Laboratories (LNF) - National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN)
Frascati 00044, Via E. Fermi, 40, ITALY
Correspondence to: Gianluigi Zangari Email: gianluigi.zangari@lnf.infn.it
Abstract: BP Oil Spill may cause an irreparable damage to the Gulf
Stream global climate thermoregulation activity.
The Gulf Stream importance in the global climate thermoregulation processes
is well assessed. The latest real time satellite (Jason, Topex/Poseidon, Geosat
Follow-On, ERS-2, Envisat) data maps of May-June 2010 processed by CCAR1,2
(Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research), checked at Frascati
Laboratories by the means of the SHT congruent calculus3 and compared with
past years data, show for the first time a direct evidence of the rapid breaking
of the Loop Current, a warm ocean current, crucial part of the Gulf Stream.
As displayed both by the sea surface velocity maps and the sea surface height
maps, the Loop Current broke down for the first time around May 18th and
generated a clock wise eddy, which is still active (see Fig. 1).

Figure 1| Real time satellites data maps. Real time sea surface height maps (above) and sea surface velocity maps (below) starting from april 22nd until June 9th processed by CCAR1,2and checked at LNF (Frascati) by SHT calculus3. The star indicates the site of BP platform
“Deepwater Horizon”. The yellow arrow indicates the breaking of the Loop Stream.

As of today the situation has deteriorated up to the point in which the eddy has
detached itself completely from the main stream therefore destroying
completely the Loop Current, as in figure 2 below, dated June 12th 2010.

Figure 2| Real time satellites data maps updated. Real time sea surface height map (left)and sea surface velocity maps (right) updated on June 12th processed by CCAR1,2and checked at LNF (Frascati) by SHT calculus 3. The star indicates the site of BP platform “Deepwater Horizon”. The yellow arrow indicates the breaking of the Loop Stream.
Since comparative analysis with past satellite data until may 2010 didn’t show
relevant anomalies, it might be therefore plausible to correlate the breaking of
the Loop Current with the biochemical and physical action of the BP Oil Spill on
the Gulf Stream.
It is reasonable to foresee the threat that the breaking of a crucial warm
stream as the Loop Current may generate a chain reaction of unpredictable
critical phenomena and instabilities due to strong non linearities which may
have serious consequences on the dynamics of the Gulf Stream thermoregulation
activity of the Global Climate.
References:
1. CCAR web page: http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/welcome/;
2. Leben, R. R., G. H. Born, B. R. Engebreth, 2002, Operational altimeter
data processing for mesoscale monitoring. Marine Geodesy, 25, 3-18;
3. G. Zangari patent SIAE-OLAF n. 9903198/1999
Acknowledgements: we acknowledge Frascati National Laboratories
(www.lnf.infn.it) and the National Institute of Nuclear Physics (www.infn.it).
We also aknowledge the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA: the maps
displayed in Fig. 1 and 2 were produced by the Colorado Center for
Astrodynamics Research at the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA. More
information on these data products is available at
http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/welcome".

O sea, un daño de mayor repercusión que el observado hasta ahora podría desencadenarse sobre Europa en los próximos meses. Hasta ahora no he leido nada en la prensa más cercana, pero seguro que aparecerá.Cabe decir que a pesar del inmenso volumen de aguas desplazado por la Corriente del Golfo, se trata de un sistema con un equilibrio vulnerable. Su alteración podría provocar reacciones en cadena.,..

Curiosamente el minúsculo hombre puede a base de imprevisiones e incompetencias causar desastres y graves daños a escala Global.

Esperemos que no se confirme esta posibilidad, aunque merece la pena reseñarla hoy aquí.

Saludos y hasta pronto.

Mariscal Tro

30 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hola Mariscal: Mis limitados conocimientos de meteo no me permiten valorar la noticia, pero qué miedo, no? Tu crees esto posible? Quién lo dice? Saludos. Mireia

5:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hola Mariscal, estoy interesado en esa noticia, pero el hecho de que no haya aparecido en los medios, me hace dudar de su veracidad, no sé si porque el hecho en sí aún carece de solidez o porque choca con el interés puesto por los medios y políticos en el calentamiento global y esto no va acorde con ellos. Te rogaría que si pudieras aportar más información o hicieras... creo que es algo muy interesante (pese a que no soy meteorólogo ni dispongo de conocimientos más allá de cualquier ciudadano de a pie) Gracias

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