Monday, January 06, 2014

"METEOROLOGÍA: CON GRAN INCERTIDUMBRE PREDICTIVA".

Hola a todos.

Llevo varias días "oteando el horizonte" como decían las antiguas retransmisiones radiofónicas futbolísticas intentando vislumbrar los inicios de una Ola de Frío en mayúsculas sobre nuestro Continente. La verdad es que nada de nada y debo manifestar mi sorpresa sobre el particular. En primer lugar, estadísticamente,las fechas comprendidas entre fin de año y Reyes o sea en la primera semana del año suele producirse la primera entrada Polar o Continental en el continente europeo. Nada de ello acontece en este año 2014.Al contrario nos dominan los vientos del Oeste o Ponientes con una marcada circulación zonal. Las Borrascas atlánticas desfilan casi sin pausas con vientos durísimos que alcanzan facilmente valores superiores a los 140 km/h en la fachada atlántica europea. Su reiteración y violencia vienen causando daños personales y materiales casi a diario especialmente en las islas Británicas,Francia, Países Bajos,Alemania y en algunas zonas de España.



3 Desaparecidos en A Coruña hoy lunes 6 de enero. Efe " LaVanguardia"




El frío polar se extiende por EE.UU. con temperaturas de -40 grados

El lago Michigan, congelado, y el skyline de Chicago al fondo Scott Olson - AFP La Vanguardia



Un hombre cubierto de nieve en Muskegon, Michigan.


Un hombre cubierto de nieve en Muskegon, Michigan.

http://www.elperiodico.comVEN




Temperaturas acatuales en Europa. Exceopcionalmente cálidas pero ¿cambiarán?



Contrariamente en los Estados Unidos de Norteamérica, especialmente es su costa Este están registrando auténticas tempestades de nieve que se congela debido a las bajas temperaturas. En el caso americano debemos hablar de circulación meridiana o sea en el sentido meridiano con fluídas circulaciones Norte-Sur. Nada a ver con con lo que aquí sucede. Las sucesivas invasiones frías no tienen antecedente en en noreste de los U.S.A. en los últimos 20 años. Además no se ven por el momento indicios de cambio en un futuro próximo. Sigue el mapa sinóptico elaborado por en Centro Europeo dibujado ayer pero válido para el día 15 de enero. Las perturbaciones atlánticas siguen afectando a la Europa más atlántica, mientras que los centros de acción al Este del Continente (desde donde podría venir el frío) se muestran totalmente desdibujados y sin coherencia suficiente papa poder impulsar masas continentales frías hacia el Oeste y Sur.


Netweather GFS Image
Mapa ya detallado anteriormente. No hay por el momento cambios substanciales con la situación de hoy.




Netweather GFS Image

Aquí tenemos el mapa de todo el hemisferio Norte. Se sigue observando frío en U.S.A. y temperaturas cálidas en Europa especialmente en Francia,España y Portugal.Predicción para el día 15 de enero.


Jetstream Forecast
Corriente en Jet ( Chorro) o Jet Stream hoy. Su ramal más importante toca a Galicia y desde allí gira hacia las islas Británicas. Una parte se enfoca hacia las islas Canarias donde podré llover con intensidad dentro de pocos días. Atención con las lluvias torrenciales en las Canarias.

Jetstream Forecast

Sobre el jueves podría formarse una gota fría o una situación muy inestable en las Canarias. Según este mapa.
Jetstream Forecast
Posiblemente para el día 20 (hablamos para dentro de 14 días o sea fiabilidad baja) la Corriente en Chorro nos podría afectar con lluvias nieves y más frío. En todo caso y según este mapa la influencia seguiría siendo atlántica lo que equivale a decir húmeda y no especialmente fría.

No obstante y en modelos aparecidos hoy y publicados por la prestigiosa página de Meteo Giornale es posible que dentro de 9 días tengamos una invasión Continental muy fría. Adjunto mapa:

imagen 1 artículo 30706

Fuente: http://www.meteogiornale.it
En este caso la influencia sería marcadamente continental y muy fría.


imagen 2 artículo 30706
Temperaturas a 1.500 metros aproximadamente.
Fuente: http://www.meteogiornale.it

Los dos últimos mapas han sido elaborados por el Centro Europeo de Predicción a Medio Plazo desde la Universidad de Reading en Inglaterra con una alta fiabilidad.

En fin, algo se mueve...aunque no sabemos exactamente hacia donde. Lo que queda claro es que el excepcional período de frío en USA va a tener reflejo más o menos moderado en Europa y que una nueva dinámica anticiclónica podría modificar todo el escenario europeo de forma sorpresiva y en muy pocos días.



1888 bliz 2


Marzo de 1883. Nevada histórica en el NE de los U.S.A.http://www.liveweatherblogs.com


Eliminando la nieve en New York.Año 1908. Fuente Wikipedia.



woman slip winter

 Manhattan, in New York January 5, 2014.http://www.businessinsider.com
La 5ª Avenida sobre 1905 .http://www.shorpy.com





New York 1933. Savoy Plaza and Plaza hotels from Central Park.

http://www.shorpy.com




Flatiron Snow Field

New York circa 1905.


http://www.shorpy.com







Nueva York . Probablemente en 1908





Siempre me han gustado las fotografías antiguas de nieve a poder ser con personas. Todavía no sé el porqué.

De momento nada más.

Saludos.




Mariscal Tro


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